Iron Sheepdog Market Intelligence

Virginia | June 2026

Virginia market intelligence for June 2026. VDOT's June 24 letting awarded 20 contracts worth $106,179,654 — 2.3x the state's trailing three-letting average — with 72.7% of value in earthwork-intensive work. Iron Index 88 (Strong). Project Pipeline and Broker Opportunity are not scored this cycle — VDOT publishes forward project counts, not dollar values.

REPORT TYPE
State Report
REPORTING PERIOD
June 2026
PUBLISHED
August 24, 2026
DATA AS OF
June 29, 2026
VERIFIED
August 24, 2026
THE IRON INDEX™

The monthly operating picture

3
verified sources
88
/ 100
Strong

One score summarizing project activity, demand, capacity, operating pressure, and near-term opportunity.

THIS MONTH IN 20 SECONDS
↗

VDOT's June letting reached $106.2M — 2.3x its trailing three-letting average.

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The two largest contracts carried 57% of June's value; a single award moves the month.

→

Virginia construction employment fell 2.2% year over year, loosening hauling capacity.

MARKET SCORECARD

Where the market stands now

0 weak  •  100 exceptional
Transportation
95
/100
Heavy civil
90
/100
Project pipeline
/100
Broker opportunity
/100
Hauler capacity
71
/100
Fuel risk
85
/100
DEEP DIVE

The full market analysis

For readers who want the detail behind the score, signals, regional outlook, and operating recommendations.

Executive read: Virginia ran far above its own baseline in June. VDOT's single June letting awarded $106.2 million across 20 contracts, 2.3 times the trailing three-letting average, and nearly three-quarters of that value was earthwork-intensive work. Diesel closed the month well below its recent average, and construction employment eased year over year, which means hauling capacity was looser than normal. One caution: more than half the month's value sits in just two contracts.

Market at a glance

  • Let value: $106,179,654 across 20 contracts in the June 24 letting
  • Versus baseline: 2.3x the trailing three-letting average of $46.2M per letting
  • Work mix: 72.7% of value in earthwork-intensive categories
  • Letting cadence: one statewide letting, read June 24
  • Fuel cost: Lower Atlantic diesel closed June 12% below its 12-week average
  • Hauling capacity: Looser than normal; construction employment down 2.2% year over year

Where the work was

Bridge & Interchange Improvements

39.8% of June's let value in a single $42.2M contract — the largest award of the month. Interchange reconstruction requires approach grading and new foundations, so it is classified as earthwork-intensive.

Road Widening & Intersection Realignment

17.3% of let value in a single contract. Widening and realignment are grading-and-paving work.

On-Call Bridge Repair & Preventative Maintenance

9.5% of let value in one on-call contract. Repair and preservation work moves little material, so it is not classified as earthwork-intensive.

Safety Improvements / Lane Additions

5.8% of let value. Lane additions require grading and paving, so this contract is classified as earthwork-intensive.

Shared Use Path

4.2% of let value. Path and pedestrian work is not earthwork-intensive. The remaining value spreads across bridge, intersection, and roadway contracts, most under $4M each.

Operating environment

Fuel and margin pressure

On-highway diesel for the Lower Atlantic region (PADD 1C) closed June at $4.55 per gallon, about 12% below its trailing 12-week average — a favorable cost position during the month. EIA publishes diesel by PADD region, so this is a regional figure and not a Virginia pump price.

Hauling capacity

Virginia construction employment was 226,100 in June, down 2.2% from June 2025. Easing construction employment implies hauling capacity is loosening, since it draws on the same regional labor pool. This is an employment-based proxy, not a measurement of truck supply.

Opportunity map

  • A $42.2M bridge-and-interchange award anchoring the month's demand
  • Nearly three-quarters of June's value in earthwork-intensive categories — material movement tracks that mix, not the contract count
  • Demand at 2.3x baseline while capacity loosens — trucks easier to source than in a tight market
  • Diesel below its recent average during the month, easing operating cost
  • Widening, lane-addition, and roundabout work spread beyond the two anchor contracts

Risk map

  • Two contracts carry 57% of June's value; a rescission or delay moves the whole month
  • One statewide letting per month means a single date carries the entire monthly signal
  • The baseline is three letting cycles, not a full year — early editions can swing more than a 12-month baseline would
  • Low-bid values are not final awarded values; contracts can be rescinded or adjusted after letting
  • Diesel is a regional PADD figure and does not track every Virginia pump equally

Metrics not included

Project Pipeline

Requires forward-looking letting values for the next 90 days. VDOT's advertisements publish project counts, not dollar values, and a count-based ratio is a different measurement — so the metric is omitted rather than approximated. The Iron Index is computed from the four available metrics.

Broker Opportunity

Derived from Project Pipeline, so it is unavailable for the same reason. It is left blank rather than substituted with a partial calculation.

What to do next

Broker playbook

  • Demand ran at 2.3x baseline while hauling capacity loosened — coverage is easier to build this month than the demand number alone suggests.
  • 72.7% of June's value was earthwork-intensive, so material-hauling demand tracked the work mix rather than the headline dollar figure.
  • Two contracts carried 57% of June's value; plan coverage around the anchor projects, not contract count.
  • Hauler Capacity at 71 means trucks were easier to source than normal — lock coverage while conditions favor the buyer.
  • Diesel closed June below its recent average, easing margin pressure during the month. That is an observation about June, not a forecast.
Explore Broker Intelligence

Contractor playbook

  • Hauler Capacity at 71 means trucks were easier to source than normal — a favorable window to secure capacity for the anchor projects.
  • Heavy Civil at 90 means June's work genuinely moves material; hauling requirements ran high relative to contract count.
  • The month's value concentrates in two anchor contracts; their mobilization timing will drive regional hauling demand.
  • Virginia construction employment fell 2.2% year over year, easing the same regional labor pool that trucking draws from.
  • VDOT reads one statewide letting per month — June's figure is one date's awards, not a smooth monthly flow of work.
Explore Contractor Intelligence

Hauler playbook

  • Heavy Civil at 90 means June's work genuinely moved material rather than resurfacing over it.
  • Hauler Capacity at 71 means availability was above normal — the condition in which pricing leverage sits with the buyer, not the truck owner.
  • The haul-heavy work concentrates in the bridge-and-interchange and widening anchor contracts.
  • Lower Atlantic diesel closed June at $4.55, about 12% below its 12-week average. It is a regional PADD figure, not a Virginia pump price.
  • Low-bid values are not final awarded values; scope and schedule can shift after letting.
Explore Hauler Intelligence

Sources & methodology

Data as of
June 29, 2026
Verified
August 24, 2026

Extraction and scoring run August 24, 2026, against public data. All figures in this report derive from the three sources below, each retained as a hashed raw artifact for audit.

Method

Each contract's award value is the Rank-1 (low bidder) Total Bid exactly as VDOT computed it on the letting's Vendor Ranking page; item lines are not re-summed. One June contract listed a disqualified, unranked bidder at a lower dollar figure than the ranked winner — VDOT's own ranking governs, so the ranked low bid is used.

Earthwork classification uses VDOT's contract descriptions. Widening, interchange reconstruction, lane additions, roundabouts, and bridge replacement are classified as earthwork-intensive; repair, preventative maintenance, bridge painting, deck work, lighting, and shared-use paths are not. One judgment call is worth stating plainly: the month's largest contract, a combined bridge-and-interchange improvement representing 39.8% of June let value, is classified as earthwork-intensive on the basis that interchange reconstruction requires approach grading and new foundations; classifying it otherwise would reduce the reported earthwork share from 72.7% to 32.9%.

Virginia's baseline is the trailing three complete letting cycles (March 25, April 22, and May 27, 2026), averaging $46.2M per letting — not a 12-month average. VDOT publishes results per letting rather than as a monthly series, so early Virginia editions may swing more than states measured against a full year of history.

Every metric is anchored to the June 2026 reporting period. Diesel is scored against the last full week of June and the twelve weeks preceding it, not against the most recent week available at the time of the run.

About the Iron Index

The Iron Index is Iron Sheepdog's proprietary market assessment, built from public DOT, EIA, BLS, and Census data. It considers DOT letting activity, work mix, forward pipeline, fuel cost movement, and hauling capacity. Scores run 0–100 on a scale where 60 represents normal conditions for that state measured against its own history — never against other states. The derivation behind the scores is proprietary and is not published. The underlying facts in this report — letting values, contract counts, diesel prices, employment figures — are fully sourced above and can be checked against the cited sources.

Disclosures

The Hauler Capacity score is an employment-based proxy. No public dataset reports dump truck availability by state, so total state construction employment is used as an indicator of capacity conditions. It is not a measurement of truck supply.

Scores describe observed conditions during the reporting period. They are not forecasts or guarantees of future market conditions. Low-bid values are not final awarded values; contracts may be rescinded or adjusted after letting. This report covers state highway lettings only and does not measure private, municipal, or county construction activity. No Iron Sheepdog platform or customer data was used.

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