Iron Sheepdog Market Intelligence

Tennessee | September 2026

Tennessee’s September Iron Index is 66 (Active). The latest completed letting, August 14, recorded $129.3 million in awards, with 80.6% in earthwork-intensive work. September regional diesel adds cost pressure. August activity is carried forward; it is not new September awards.

REPORT TYPE
State Report
REPORTING PERIOD
September 2026
PUBLISHED
October 23, 2026
DATA AS OF
August 14, 2026
VERIFIED
October 23, 2026
THE IRON INDEX™

The monthly operating picture

3
verified sources
66
/ 100
Active

One score summarizing project activity, demand, capacity, operating pressure, and near-term opportunity.

THIS MONTH IN 20 SECONDS
↗

Latest completed letting: $129.3M awarded August 14, carried forward into September.

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80.6% of awarded value is in earthwork-intensive work.

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Midwest diesel was $6.526/gal for the week of September 28.

MARKET SCORECARD

Where the market stands now

0 weak  •  100 exceptional
Transportation
67
/100
Heavy civil
90
/100
Project pipeline
/100
Broker opportunity
/100
Hauler capacity
57
/100
Fuel risk
25
/100
DEEP DIVE

The full market analysis

For readers who want the detail behind the score, signals, regional outlook, and operating recommendations.

Executive read: Tennessee’s September Iron Index is 66 (Active), Iron Sheepdog’s proprietary assessment. The latest completed letting carries a strong grading and new-bridge work mix, while elevated September regional diesel warrants care in pricing. TDOT’s August 14 activity is carried forward because its published schedule lists no September letting; these are not new September awards.

Market at a glance

  • Awarded value: $129,307,655.46 across 16 contracts in the August 14 letting.
  • Work mix: $104,242,403.17, or 80.6%, in earthwork-intensive work.
  • Regional diesel: Midwest (PADD 2), $6.526 per gallon, week of September 28.
  • Construction employment: 167,600 jobs in September, up 0.5% year over year; preliminary.

Projects and programs to watch

Cumberland County — US 127

Contract CN262058 carries $69,978,616.17 for grading, drainage, concrete bulb-tee bridges and paving from near Potato Farm Road to near Lowe Road. Charles Blalock & Sons, Inc. is the awarded contractor. Confirm hauling packages and release dates directly.

Shelby County — SR 205 bridges

Contract CN264054 carries $16,843,999.90 for new bridges over Overflow and the Wolf River, including grading, drainage and paving. Dement Construction Group, LLC is the awarded contractor. Confirm approach-work quantities and access before reserving trucks.

Knox County — Emory Road intersection

Contract CN261061 carries $7,897,169.91 for intersection improvements at Harrell Road/Carpenter Road, including grading, drainage, signals and paving. Coordinate material movements with the prime contractor.

Operating environment

Fuel and margins

Midwest diesel was $6.526 per gallon for the week of September 28, 20.0% above its recent reference level. This regional benchmark is not a Tennessee pump price. Include fuel adjustments, return mileage and delay terms in quotes.

Capacity signal

September construction employment was 167,600, up 0.5% year over year. The employment-based capacity signal is near normal with modest tightening. It does not measure truck supply; verify local equipment availability directly.

Opportunity map

  • Prioritize confirmed grading, bridge-construction and intersection packages.
  • Check the awarded primes’ current schedules before repositioning equipment.
  • Match truck commitments to actual quantities and material-release dates.

Risk map

  • The activity figures are from August 14, carried forward into this September edition.
  • Large contracts concentrate the work; contract dollars do not equal hauling revenue or truck demand.
  • Elevated regional diesel can pressure margins.
  • Two rejected bids are excluded from awarded value.

Report coverage

Four assessed indicators

This edition assesses completed letting activity, work mix, September regional fuel and September construction employment. Project Pipeline and Broker Opportunity are not scored because comparable forward-project dollar coverage is unavailable. This inaugural edition has no month-over-month Index trend.

Scope and timing

The activity assessment uses the approved latest completed August 14 cycle and the preceding twelve-month comparison window, August 2025 through July 2026. It covers the regular and special lettings in the reviewed TDOT archive, not every local, private or separately procured emergency project. Awards do not establish mobilization dates.

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What to do next

Broker playbook

  • Build coverage around confirmed grading and new-bridge packages.
  • Verify local availability and prime-contractor release dates.
  • Make fuel and wait-time terms explicit.

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Explore Broker Intelligence

Contractor playbook

  • Confirm hauling quantities and construction sequencing.
  • Check equipment commitments directly; employment is only a proxy.
  • Compare quotes using fuel adjustments, return mileage and delays.

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Explore Contractor Intelligence

Hauler playbook

  • Ask awarded primes about material-moving packages.
  • Confirm current start dates before repositioning equipment.
  • Protect margins with clear fuel, wait-time and payment terms.

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Explore Hauler Intelligence

Sources & methodology

Data as of
August 14, 2026
Verified
October 23, 2026

Prepared October 23, 2026. Letting activity is carried forward from August 14; fuel and employment observations are anchored to September.

  • TDOT August 14 letting and final Contract Awards: 16 awards totaling $129,307,655.46. Final award PDF supplied and verified October 23. The 2025 and 2026 letting archives support the preceding twelve-month comparison. Construction amounts exclude explicitly labeled A+B time-cost components; rejected and withdrawn bids are excluded.
  • EIA On-Highway Diesel Prices: Midwest (PADD 2), week of September 28, 2026; retrieved October 23. Regional prices, not Tennessee pump prices.
  • BLS State and Area Employment: Tennessee seasonally adjusted construction employment, September 2026 and September 2025; retrieved October 23. September is preliminary.

About the Iron Index

The Iron Index is Iron Sheepdog’s proprietary market assessment, built from public DOT, EIA and BLS data. A score of 60 represents normal conditions for that state. The scoring derivation is proprietary and is not published.

Disclosures

Hauler Capacity is an employment-based proxy, not a measurement of truck supply. Scores describe observed conditions and are not forecasts or guarantees. Award values are not hauling revenue or confirmed loads. This report does not measure all municipal, county, private or separately procured emergency construction.

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Put this intelligence to work

Use the market signals above to grow your network, plan capacity, and find better-fit work in Tennessee.

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