Iron Sheepdog Market Intelligence

Texas | July 2026

Texas’s July 2026 Iron Index is 76 (Active). TxDOT recorded $1,047,973,863 in low bids across 214 contracts; 74.5% of value was in earthwork-intensive work. Regional diesel was $5.087/gal in the week of 2026-07-27. July construction employment was up 2.1% year over year.

REPORT TYPE
State Report
REPORTING PERIOD
July 2026
PUBLISHED
October 15, 2026
DATA AS OF
July 1, 2026
VERIFIED
October 15, 2026
THE IRON INDEX™

The monthly operating picture

3
verified sources
76
/ 100
Active
+2 since June

One score summarizing project activity, demand, capacity, operating pressure, and near-term opportunity.

THIS MONTH IN 20 SECONDS
↗

TxDOT recorded $1,048.0M in low bids across 214 July contracts.

!

74.5% of recorded low-bid value was in earthwork-intensive work.

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Regional diesel was $5.087/gal in the week of 2026-07-27.

MARKET SCORECARD

Where the market stands now

0 weak  •  100 exceptional
Transportation
95
/100
Heavy civil
90
/100
Project pipeline
/100
Broker opportunity
/100
Hauler capacity
49
/100
Fuel risk
30
/100
DEEP DIVE

The full market analysis

For readers who want the detail behind the score, signals, regional outlook, and operating recommendations.

Executive read: Texas’s July Iron Index is 76 (Active), Iron Sheepdog’s proprietary assessment. Large freeway conversion, widening and interchange contracts supported strong recorded DOT activity. Regional diesel costs rose above their recent reference level, and the employment-based capacity proxy pointed to tighter availability.

Market at a glance

  • Recorded low bids: $1,047,973,863 across 214 contracts
  • Letting dates: 16 date(s), 2026-07-01 through 2026-07-31
  • Work mix: 74.5% of value in earthwork-intensive work
  • Regional diesel: Gulf Coast (PADD 3), $5.087/gal, week of 2026-07-27
  • Construction employment: 923,300 jobs in July, up 2.1% year over year
  • Data coverage: Four verified metrics

Where the work was

Convert Non-Freeway To Freeway

$221,640,502 across 1 contract(s), representing 21.1% of recorded low-bid value. Confirm actual hauling scope, award status and mobilization with the contractor.

Widen Freeway

$167,741,121 across 1 contract(s), representing 16.0% of recorded low-bid value. Confirm actual hauling scope, award status and mobilization with the contractor.

Widen Non-Freeway

$153,151,576 across 3 contract(s), representing 14.6% of recorded low-bid value. Confirm actual hauling scope, award status and mobilization with the contractor.

Interchange (New or Reconstructed)

$118,031,820 across 2 contract(s), representing 11.3% of recorded low-bid value. Confirm actual hauling scope, award status and mobilization with the contractor.

Regional outlook

Lubbock County

$221,968,802 across 2 contract(s). This is a concentration of recorded low bids, not a measurement of available hauling work or trucks.

Bexar County

$179,495,216 across 8 contract(s). This is a concentration of recorded low bids, not a measurement of available hauling work or trucks.

Smith County

$148,762,862 across 4 contract(s). This is a concentration of recorded low bids, not a measurement of available hauling work or trucks.

Johnson County

$69,925,811 across 4 contract(s). This is a concentration of recorded low bids, not a measurement of available hauling work or trucks.

Operating environment

Fuel and margins

EIA reported Gulf Coast (PADD 3) on-highway diesel at $5.087/gal for the week of 2026-07-27, 6.6% above its recent reference level. This is a regional figure, not a Texas pump price. Check fuel-adjustment terms and loaded and empty miles when pricing work.

Hauling capacity

BLS reported 923,300 construction jobs in July 2026, up 2.1% from July 2025. Hauler Capacity is an employment-based proxy, not a measurement of truck supply. The proxy points to tighter availability; local truck commitments still need direct confirmation.

Opportunity map

  • Prioritize contractor outreach around freeway conversion, widening and interchange contracts.
  • Match coverage to confirmed hauling scope, material specifications and start dates.
  • The capacity proxy indicates tighter availability; confirm actual regional capacity directly.

Risk map

  • Low-bid totals are not final awards or guaranteed mobilizations.
  • Large individual contracts can shift the monthly picture; contract count is not truck demand.
  • Regional diesel was 6.6% above its recent reference level during the reporting period.
  • DOT lettings omit private, county and municipal construction. Employment is a capacity proxy, not truck availability.

Report coverage

Market assessment

This edition assesses transportation activity, heavy civil work, fuel costs and hauling capacity. Together, these indicators inform Iron Sheepdog’s proprietary view of market conditions.

Forward-looking indicators

Project Pipeline and Broker Opportunity are not rated in this edition. Historical forward-looking contract values are unavailable for this reporting period.

What to do next

Broker playbook

  • Build coverage around freeway conversion, widening and interchange contracts.
  • The employment proxy points to tighter availability; check truck commitments directly.
  • Use explicit fuel-adjustment terms and validate route costs before quoting.
Explore Broker Intelligence

Contractor playbook

  • Confirm material quantities, hauling scope and mobilization before reserving capacity.
  • Use the tighter capacity signal as a prompt for local availability checks, not a truck count.
  • Compare hauling quotes using fuel, loaded miles, empty miles and expected wait time.
Explore Contractor Intelligence

Hauler playbook

  • Ask about material-moving packages within freeway conversion, widening and interchange contracts.
  • The capacity proxy suggests tighter availability; verify local demand before repositioning trucks.
  • Check fuel-adjustment language, wait-time terms and payment timing before accepting work.
Explore Hauler Intelligence

Sources & methodology

Data as of
July 1, 2026
Verified
October 15, 2026

Historical edition prepared October 15, 2026. Letting, fuel and employment observations are anchored to the stated reporting period. Employment estimates may be revised after their initial release.

  • TxDOT bid tabulations. Data dates: 2026-07-01–2026-07-31. October 15, 2026. Published ranked low-bid totals; historical tabulations support the activity assessment.
  • EIA — On-Highway Diesel Prices. Gulf Coast (PADD 3), week of 2026-07-27. Retrieved October 15, 2026. Regional price, not a state pump price.
  • BLS — State and Area Employment. Texas construction, July 2026 compared with July 2025. Retrieved October 15, 2026. Employment-based capacity proxy; estimates subject to revision.

About the Iron Index

The Iron Index is Iron Sheepdog’s proprietary market assessment, built from public DOT, EIA and BLS data. It considers activity, work mix, forward pipeline, fuel pressure and hauling capacity. A score of 60 represents normal conditions for that state. The scoring derivation is proprietary and is not published.

Disclosures

Hauler Capacity is an employment-based proxy, not a measurement of truck supply. Scores describe observed conditions and are not forecasts or guarantees. Low-bid results can change before final award. This report does not measure all private, county or municipal construction.

Put this intelligence to work

Use the market signals above to grow your network, plan capacity, and find better-fit work in Texas.