Iron Sheepdog Market Intelligence

Virginia | July 2026

Virginia’s July 2026 Iron Index is 80 (Strong). VDOT recorded $146,200,429 in low bids across 36 contracts; 49.2% of value was in earthwork-intensive work. Regional diesel was $5.255/gal in the week of 2026-07-27. July construction employment was down 2.5% year over year.

REPORT TYPE
State Report
REPORTING PERIOD
July 2026
PUBLISHED
October 15, 2026
DATA AS OF
July 22, 2026
VERIFIED
October 15, 2026
THE IRON INDEX™

The monthly operating picture

3
verified sources
80
/ 100
Strong
-8 since June

One score summarizing project activity, demand, capacity, operating pressure, and near-term opportunity.

THIS MONTH IN 20 SECONDS
↗

VDOT recorded $146.2M in low bids across 36 July contracts.

!

49.2% of recorded low-bid value was in earthwork-intensive work.

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Regional diesel was $5.255/gal in the week of 2026-07-27.

MARKET SCORECARD

Where the market stands now

0 weak  •  100 exceptional
Transportation
95
/100
Heavy civil
89
/100
Project pipeline
/100
Broker opportunity
/100
Hauler capacity
72
/100
Fuel risk
32
/100
DEEP DIVE

The full market analysis

For readers who want the detail behind the score, signals, regional outlook, and operating recommendations.

Executive read: Virginia’s July Iron Index is 80 (Strong), Iron Sheepdog’s proprietary assessment. The July letting combined a large plant-mix pavement program with intersection, roundabout and bridge work. Recorded low-bid activity was strong relative to Virginia’s recent history. Regional diesel costs increased, while the employment-based capacity proxy pointed to looser availability.

Market at a glance

  • Recorded low bids: $146,200,429 across 36 contracts
  • Letting dates: 1 date(s), 2026-07-22 through 2026-07-22
  • Work mix: 49.2% of value in earthwork-intensive work
  • Regional diesel: Lower Atlantic (PADD 1C), $5.255/gal, week of 2026-07-27
  • Construction employment: 224,900 jobs in July, down 2.5% year over year
  • Data coverage: Four verified metrics

Where the work was

2027 PLANT MIX - SECONDARY

$36,163,908 across 11 contract(s), representing 24.7% of recorded low-bid value. Confirm actual hauling scope, award status and mobilization with the contractor.

SMART SCALE* - INTERSECTION IMPROVEMENTS

$21,585,000 across 1 contract(s), representing 14.8% of recorded low-bid value. Confirm actual hauling scope, award status and mobilization with the contractor.

BRIDGE REHABILITATION

$13,090,864 across 2 contract(s), representing 9.0% of recorded low-bid value. Confirm actual hauling scope, award status and mobilization with the contractor.

SMART SCALE - ROUNDABOUT AND R-CUT INTERSECTION

$10,953,491 across 1 contract(s), representing 7.5% of recorded low-bid value. Confirm actual hauling scope, award status and mobilization with the contractor.

Projects and programs to watch

C0000120611C01

SMART SCALE* - INTERSECTION IMPROVEMENTS: $21,585,000 in the published ranked low bid. Confirm the contractor’s schedule, material requirements and hauling package before committing capacity.

C0000120748C01

SMART SCALE - ROUNDABOUT AND R-CUT INTERSECTION: $10,953,491 in the published ranked low bid. Confirm the contractor’s schedule, material requirements and hauling package before committing capacity.

C0000122147C01C

HARD SHOULDER RUNNING AND ITS INSTALLATION: $10,424,919 in the published ranked low bid. Confirm the contractor’s schedule, material requirements and hauling package before committing capacity.

C0000122360M01

BRIDGE REHABILITATION: $8,470,743 in the published ranked low bid. Confirm the contractor’s schedule, material requirements and hauling package before committing capacity.

Operating environment

Fuel and margins

EIA reported Lower Atlantic (PADD 1C) on-highway diesel at $5.255/gal for the week of 2026-07-27, 6.2% above its recent reference level. This is a regional figure, not a Virginia pump price. Check fuel-adjustment terms and loaded and empty miles when pricing work.

Hauling capacity

BLS reported 224,900 construction jobs in July 2026, down 2.5% from July 2025. Hauler Capacity is an employment-based proxy, not a measurement of truck supply. The proxy points to looser availability; local truck commitments still need direct confirmation.

Opportunity map

  • Prioritize contractor outreach around confirmed intersection, roundabout and bridge replacement contracts.
  • Match coverage to confirmed hauling scope, material specifications and start dates.
  • The capacity proxy indicates looser availability; confirm actual regional capacity directly.

Risk map

  • Low-bid totals are not final awards or guaranteed mobilizations.
  • Large individual contracts can shift the monthly picture; contract count is not truck demand.
  • Regional diesel was 6.2% above its recent reference level during the reporting period.
  • DOT lettings omit private, county and municipal construction. Employment is a capacity proxy, not truck availability.

Report coverage

Market assessment

This edition assesses transportation activity, heavy civil work, fuel costs and hauling capacity. Together, these indicators inform Iron Sheepdog’s proprietary view of market conditions.

Forward-looking indicators

Project Pipeline and Broker Opportunity are not rated in this edition. Published VDOT advertisements do not provide the future contract values needed to assess these indicators.

What to do next

Broker playbook

  • Build coverage around confirmed intersection, roundabout and bridge replacement contracts.
  • The employment proxy points to looser availability; check truck commitments directly.
  • Use explicit fuel-adjustment terms and validate route costs before quoting.
Explore Broker Intelligence

Contractor playbook

  • Confirm material quantities, hauling scope and mobilization before reserving capacity.
  • Use the looser capacity signal as a prompt for local availability checks, not a truck count.
  • Compare hauling quotes using fuel, loaded miles, empty miles and expected wait time.
Explore Contractor Intelligence

Hauler playbook

  • Ask about material-moving packages within confirmed intersection, roundabout and bridge replacement contracts.
  • The capacity proxy suggests looser availability; verify local demand before repositioning trucks.
  • Check fuel-adjustment language, wait-time terms and payment timing before accepting work.
Explore Hauler Intelligence

Sources & methodology

Data as of
July 22, 2026
Verified
October 15, 2026

Historical edition prepared October 15, 2026. Letting, fuel and employment observations are anchored to the stated reporting period. Employment estimates may be revised after their initial release.

  • VDOT bid tabulations. Data dates: 2026-07-22–2026-07-22. Source file acquired October 14, 2026; parsed and reviewed October 15, 2026. Published ranked low-bid totals; historical tabulations support the activity assessment.
  • EIA — On-Highway Diesel Prices. Lower Atlantic (PADD 1C), week of 2026-07-27. Retrieved October 15, 2026. Regional price, not a state pump price.
  • BLS — State and Area Employment. Virginia construction, July 2026 compared with July 2025. Retrieved October 15, 2026. Employment-based capacity proxy; estimates subject to revision.

About the Iron Index

The Iron Index is Iron Sheepdog’s proprietary market assessment, built from public DOT, EIA and BLS data. It considers activity, work mix, forward pipeline, fuel pressure and hauling capacity. A score of 60 represents normal conditions for that state. The scoring derivation is proprietary and is not published.

Disclosures

Hauler Capacity is an employment-based proxy, not a measurement of truck supply. Scores describe observed conditions and are not forecasts or guarantees. Low-bid results can change before final award. This report does not measure all private, county or municipal construction.

Put this intelligence to work

Use the market signals above to grow your network, plan capacity, and find better-fit work in Virginia.